Sunday, January 10, 2010

Tumhe apno se kab furast

Tumhe apno se kab furast
Na hum apne gham se khali
Chalo bas ho chuka milna
Na tum khali na hum khali
Today I am going to start my blog with a lie. There is nothing truth in it, but if you see it as real then this would be your fault not mine. Normally people tell thousand lies then please allow me for one. So I am going to take the benefit of this chance, and starting my blog with a lie. Actually I am getting tremendous feed back of my last two days blog, but a special call I am going to share with you, was of a senior politician. He responded me that Burney Saheb you made a story out of nothing. We got the news of Amar Singh’s resignation from party posts but you express in a way that he (Amar) joined NCP and became a partner in central government, and even put Maharashtra Government in hand of Amar Singh via NCP. Do you think is there any other thing not possible? You have written in your post that Rajiv Gandhi Ji even praised whole heartedly Mulayam Singh Ji in National integration Council meeting. Now listen, what you have not written. Have you ever heard back biting of Mulayam Singh from a responsible Congressman or vice versa? Truly not, but the same thing can’t be said about Amar Singh. Would you deny that Samajwadi party is not the part of goverment after giving support to UPA government and only reason for this situation could be Amar Singh’s harsh statements for Congress leadership? If Amar and Mulayam take different ways then why don’t you think that Mulyam and Congress may come closer? May be Samajwadi party could become a partner in the central government.
I was just going to give my response but in meantime he informed me in a bit louder pitch that “Burney Saheb,I already read your blog, but I don’t write blogs, so I called you up to express my view. Now, write whatever you wish. I said what I feel right.”
And then phone was disconnected. Now please don’t ask me the name of this senior politician? And his party?
That’s why I told you people in the beginning that today I am going to start with a lie. And even after this declaration if you feel its true then this will be your decision only.
I feel there is something in his statements. Doors of NCP could be open for Amar Singh. And in the same way after quiting Samajwadi Party by Amar Singh, it may be Mulayam come even more closer to Congress. Leaders like Raj Babbar and Beni Prasad Verma as lobbyist to Mulayam Singh could put this to their party high command that party’s real rage somehow was with Amar Singh but not with Mulayam Singh. Samajwadi Party saved the government at the time of crucial nuclear deal with US and after the last parliamentary elections they voluntarily declared their support to us, and for giving strength to the government if we could have good relation with Mulayam Singh then this would be beneficial in the long run for the future of the government also. If we face any challenge at any point of time then company of Mulayam Singh could be help us as they did at the time of nuclear deal and beside this in coming assembly election of UP congress may contest it on its own but if no one got the clear majority then there would be no if and but in formation of coalition government in UP with the help of Samajwadi party. Similarly Bihar assembly election scheduled to be held at the end of this year and if congress maintained a cordial relation with Lalu ,Paswan and Mulayam then it would give a certainty to a secular government in Bihar. We shall see it later that would form the government.
When I started thinking seriously in this direction I realized it that Mulayam Singh may have instantaneous loss if he leaves Amar Singh but may gain more in long run. How many MLA’s and MP’s could leave the party? Not even half. Till now there are 6 MP’s and 25 MLA’s are said to be with Amar Singh. And according to anti defection law this number is not adequate enough to form a new part by splinters or join any new one if they do so they are liable to lose their membership of their respective house. As for as Sanjay Dutt and Manoj Tiwari are concern, Sanjay Dutt resigned from party responsibilities and it doesn’t make any difference. He recently came to party fold, is a establish film actor and not a leader with great following.He is not a member of any house. Same is the case with Manoj Tiwari. Amar Singh himself told that Jaya Bachchan is not happy with his decision, and if she agrees then how many more days are of her membership left in upper house. Only few months, so she could resign but it’s not going to impact anymore. Jaya Prada’s case is surely a bit different; she was elected in recently held elections. If she resigns from her membership then she will lose her seat and again have to face the elections. She could win the seat as independent candidate with the help of Amar Singh but would require under the table support of BJP. And as for as rest of the member are concern , no one have disclose their clear cut stand yet ,still we can’t underestimate the political status of Amar Singh to this low. 6 is too much small number, there may be few more but not up to two third of the majority, that they could form a new party or even join a new one collectively. In this condition they would have to resign their membership and have to face elections, and if they make up their mind then chances to repeat the result is quite less. Raj Babbar lose Fatehpur Sikri seat due to the power of Amar Singh but after 6 months in Firozabad elections same was not repeated. Now we could say it that Firozabad seat belong to Yadav family. Undoubtedly it was but the clash of ego was between Amar Singh and Raj babbar. Don’t you remember the Fatehpur Sikri election? This time there was a problem faced by those who manage elections that there is Raj Babar on one side and nobody would be having any grievance with Raj Babar and even Mulayam Singh might have not any problem with Raj Babar and on the other side younger sister in law. Anyone can win but this could not be an issue of ego for party men as it was for Amar Singh. I mean to say that those who are going to give their resignation they could be in win win situation just because of their close relations with Amar Singh but this won’t be necessary that they would be successful in elections also.
Let’s have a look if Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh get separated then who would be gaining with the situation and who would be in loss. You would be surprised on my next statement, that according to me both of them would be in a position to gain a lot. Mulayam Singh is in more loss compare to gain if he accompanies Amar Singh. There may be a sudden end to the long lasting problem of party men which were due to Amar Singh and they would also realise the responsibility that they have to stand the party again without Amar Singh. Now there would not be any problem to muslims as Kalyan is no more with the party and so part men will also take a sigh of relief as Amar is not in part fold anymore. Now start a renewed movement for strengthening of part. It may be workers may get induced and they may also impress the voters successfully. There is ample time left for the preparation of coming UP assembly elections so I don’t think there would be any challenge to stand the party by leader like Mulayam Singh.
Now, let’s discuss Amar Singh. Amar Singh would not be in great loss also. Truly he also doesn’t have any special need of Samajwadi party any more. I don’t think he would ever be successful in coming two years to form government in UP on their own. Mulayam Singh can’t go with BJP and so the case with BSP also. It’s worthless to predict what would be the stand of the Congress. If Congress could accommodate SP in central government, he would have decided it earlier. So one can’t sit idly and wait that one day Congress would invite us to join the government. After joining NCP Amar Singh may or may not be a minister but he would enjoy the position of a minister. No one create any hindrances in his friend’s assignments. Either it would be getting it done from Sharad Pawar side or from any other source. If he would be a senior leader of coalition partner then how long misunderstanding with congress will maintain. No one would be having doubt that he would be enjoying great favors of Maharashtra government. It won’t be difficult for him to make Abu Asim a minister , and have a good control over the state government through Abu Asim. For Amar Singh political industry as well as bollywood industry is equally important. Political glitter may not be with him but bollywood would be with him.
There is also an opportunity, BJP is finding it difficulty in economic aspect after Pramod Mahajan. If they get the company of Amar Singh they wont be having any problem in this sector. There is no depth of people in BJP who likes Amar Singh. BJP is a large party and Amar Singh is a leader of good stature and if he comes up with BJP, party’s expectation will shoot up in U.P. and Amar Singh would become a leader of a party bigger than Samajwadi Party. Who knows he could manage to join BJP few other local leaders and may get a new lease of life to a dying party and that could start formulating an alternative government from now.
The entire above mentioned details are hypothetical but in politics there are very few ways that leads to the top and there is lesser chance to move here and there. If Amar Singh doesn’t take back his resignation then either he would form his own party or could go with Sharad Pawar or have to join BJP. There is no chance to think about Congress. One reason is that there is little scope for him to make a position in congress amongst senior leaders. If he was not satisfied with his no.2 position in Samajwadi party then in congress there is no vacancy from top to no.10. And after this there is a long waiting list, in that situation how he could be satisfied? And even he gets ample opportunity to join others after quitting Samajwadi Party, because he gets company of people who wish to quit with, but what did leaders like Narayan Dutt Tiwari and Arjun Singh gain after quitting the congress.

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